Delay prediction system for large-scale railway networks based on big data analytics

State-of-the-art train delay prediction systems do not exploit historical train movements data collected by the railway information systems, but they rely on static rules built by expert of the railway infrastructure based on classical univariate statistic. The purpose of this paper is to build a data-driven train delay prediction system for largescale railway networks which exploits the most recent Big Data technologies and learning algorithms. In particular, we propose a fast learning algorithm for predicting train delays based on the Extreme Learning Machine that fully exploits the recent in-memory large-scale data processing technologies. Our system is able to rapidly extract nontrivial information from the large amount of data available in order to make accurate predictions about different future states of the railway network. Results on real world data coming from the Italian railway network show that our proposal is able to improve the current state-of-the-art train delay prediction systems

A Standard Siren Measurement of the Hubble Constant from GW170817 without the Electromagnetic Counterpart

We perform a statistical standard siren analysis of GW170817. Our analysis does not utilize knowledge of NGC 4993 as the unique host galaxy of the optical counterpart to GW170817. Instead, we consider each galaxy within the GW170817 localization region as a potential host; combining the redshifts from all of the galaxies with the distance estimate from GW170817 provides an estimate of the Hubble constant, H 0. Considering all galaxies brighter than $0.626{L}_{B}^{\star }$ as equally likely to host a binary neutron star merger, we find ${H}_{0}={77}_{-18}^{+37}$ km s−1 Mpc−1 (maximum a posteriori and 68.3% highest density posterior interval; assuming a flat H 0 prior in the range $\left[10,220\right]$ km s−1 Mpc−1). We explore the dependence of our results on the thresholds by which galaxies are included in our sample, and we show that weighting the host galaxies by stellar mass or star formation rate provides entirely consistent results with potentially tighter constraints. By applying the method to simulated gravitational-wave events and a realistic galaxy catalog we show that, because of the small localization volume, this statistical standard siren analysis of GW170817 provides an unusually informative (top 10%) constraint. Under optimistic assumptions for galaxy completeness and redshift uncertainty, we find that dark binary neutron star measurements of H 0 will converge as $40 \% /\sqrt{(N)}$, where N is the number of sources. While these statistical estimates are inferior to the value from the counterpart standard siren measurement utilizing NGC 4993 as the unique host, ${H}_{0}={76}_{-13}^{+19}$ km s−1 Mpc−1 (determined from the same publicly available data), our analysis is a proof-of-principle demonstration of the statistical approach first proposed by Bernard Schutz over 30 yr ago

Increasing the Astrophysical Reach of the Advanced Virgo Detector via the Application of Squeezed Vacuum States of Light

Current interferometric gravitational-wave detectors are limited by quantum noise over a wide range of their measurement bandwidth. One method to overcome the quantum limit is the injection of squeezed vacuum states of light into the interferometer’s dark port. Here, we report on the successful application of this quantum technology to improve the shot noise limited sensitivity of the Advanced Virgo gravitational-wave detector. A sensitivity enhancement of up to 3.2±0.1  dB beyond the shot noise limit is achieved. This nonclassical improvement corresponds to a 5%–8% increase of the binary neutron star horizon. The squeezing injection was fully automated and over the first 5 months of the third joint LIGO-Virgo observation run O3 squeezing was applied for more than 99% of the science time. During this period several gravitational-wave candidates have been recorded

Quantum Backaction on kg-Scale Mirrors: Observation of Radiation Pressure Noise in the Advanced Virgo Detector

The quantum radiation pressure and the quantum shot noise in laser-interferometric gravitational wave detectors constitute a macroscopic manifestation of the Heisenberg inequality. If quantum shot noise can be easily observed, the observation of quantum radiation pressure noise has been elusive, so far, due to the technical noise competing with quantum effects. Here, we discuss the evidence of quantum radiation pressure noise in the Advanced Virgo gravitational wave detector. In our experiment, we inject squeezed vacuum states of light into the interferometer in order to manipulate the quantum backaction on the 42 kg mirrors and observe the corresponding quantum noise driven displacement at frequencies between 30 and 70 Hz. The experimental data, obtained in various interferometer configurations, is tested against the Advanced Virgo detector quantum noise model which confirmed the measured magnitude of quantum radiation pressure noise

Virgo Detector Characterization and Data Quality during the O3 run

The Advanced Virgo detector has contributed with its data to the rapid growth of the number of detected gravitational-wave signals in the past few years, alongside the two LIGO instruments. First, during the last month of the Observation Run 2 (O2) in August 2017 (with, most notably, the compact binary mergers GW170814 and GW170817) and then during the full Observation Run 3 (O3): an 11 months data taking period, between April 2019 and March 2020, that led to the addition of about 80 events to the catalog of transient gravitational-wave sources maintained by LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA. These discoveries and the manifold exploitation of the detected waveforms require an accurate characterization of the quality of the data, such as continuous study and monitoring of the detector noise. These activities, collectively named {\em detector characterization} or {\em DetChar}, span the whole workflow of the Virgo data, from the instrument front-end to the final analysis. They are described in details in the following article, with a focus on the associated tools, the results achieved by the Virgo DetChar group during the O3 run and the main prospects for future data-taking periods with an improved detector.Comment: 86 pages, 33 figures. This paper has been divided into two articles which supercede it and have been posted to arXiv on October 2022. Please use these new preprints as references: arXiv:2210.15634 (tools and methods) and arXiv:2210.15633 (results from the O3 run

Advanced Virgo Plus: Future Perspectives

While completing the commissioning phase to prepare the Virgo interferometer for the next joint Observation Run (O4), the Virgo collaboration is also finalizing the design of the next upgrades to the detector to be employed in the following Observation Run (O5). The major upgrade will concern decreasing the thermal noise limit, which will imply using very large test masses and increased laser beam size. But this will not be the only upgrade to be implemented in the break between the O4 and O5 observation runs to increase the Virgo detector strain sensitivity. The paper will cover the challenges linked to this upgrade and implications on the detector's reach and observational potential, reflecting the talk given at 12th Cosmic Ray International Seminar - CRIS 2022 held in September 2022 in Napoli

Virgo Detector Characterization and Data Quality: results from the O3 run

The Advanced Virgo detector has contributed with its data to the rapid growth of the number of detected gravitational-wave (GW) signals in the past few years, alongside the two Advanced LIGO instruments. First during the last month of the Observation Run 2 (O2) in August 2017 (with, most notably, the compact binary mergers GW170814 and GW170817), and then during the full Observation Run 3 (O3): an 11-months data taking period, between April 2019 and March 2020, that led to the addition of about 80 events to the catalog of transient GW sources maintained by LIGO, Virgo and now KAGRA. These discoveries and the manifold exploitation of the detected waveforms require an accurate characterization of the quality of the data, such as continuous study and monitoring of the detector noise sources. These activities, collectively named {\em detector characterization and data quality} or {\em DetChar}, span the whole workflow of the Virgo data, from the instrument front-end hardware to the final analyses. They are described in details in the following article, with a focus on the results achieved by the Virgo DetChar group during the O3 run. Concurrently, a companion article describes the tools that have been used by the Virgo DetChar group to perform this work.Comment: 57 pages, 18 figures. To be submitted to Class. and Quantum Grav. This is the "Results" part of preprint arXiv:2205.01555 [gr-qc] which has been split into two companion articles: one about the tools and methods, the other about the analyses of the O3 Virgo dat

The Advanced Virgo+ status

The gravitational wave detector Advanced Virgo+ is currently in the commissioning phase in view of the fourth Observing Run (O4). The major upgrades with respect to the Advanced Virgo configuration are the implementation of an additional recycling cavity, the Signal Recycling cavity (SRC), at the output of the interferometer to broaden the sensitivity band and the Frequency Dependent Squeezing (FDS) to reduce quantum noise at all frequencies. The main difference of the Advanced Virgo + detector with respect to the LIGO detectors is the presence of marginally stable recycling cavities, with respect to the stable recycling cavities present in the LIGO detectors, which increases the difficulties in controlling the interferometer in presence of defects (both thermal and cold defects). This work will focus on the interferometer commissioning, highlighting the control challenges to maintain the detector in the working point which maximizes the sensitivity and the duty cycle for scientific data taking

Virgo Detector Characterization and Data Quality: tools

Detector characterization and data quality studies -- collectively referred to as {\em DetChar} activities in this article -- are paramount to the scientific exploitation of the joint dataset collected by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA global network of ground-based gravitational-wave (GW) detectors. They take place during each phase of the operation of the instruments (upgrade, tuning and optimization, data taking), are required at all steps of the dataflow (from data acquisition to the final list of GW events) and operate at various latencies (from near real-time to vet the public alerts to offline analyses). This work requires a wide set of tools which have been developed over the years to fulfill the requirements of the various DetChar studies: data access and bookkeeping; global monitoring of the instruments and of the different steps of the data processing; studies of the global properties of the noise at the detector outputs; identification and follow-up of noise peculiar features (whether they be transient or continuously present in the data); quick processing of the public alerts. The present article reviews all the tools used by the Virgo DetChar group during the third LIGO-Virgo Observation Run (O3, from April 2019 to March 2020), mainly to analyse the Virgo data acquired at EGO. Concurrently, a companion article focuses on the results achieved by the DetChar group during the O3 run using these tools.Comment: 44 pages, 16 figures. To be submitted to Class. and Quantum Grav. This is the "Tools" part of preprint arXiv:2205.01555 [gr-qc] which has been split into two companion articles: one about the tools and methods, the other about the analyses of the O3 Virgo dat

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta